Programs
Med School Education
Education Program
Policy Maker Education
Congressional
Course
Briefings
Healthy Solutions
Biodiversity Loss and the Implications for Human Health
The Importance of Organic Agriculture in the U.S. in Coming Years
What Does 'Peer Reviewed for Scientific Publication' Mean and How Does the Process Work?
How Science Works and How Can Science Most Effectively Inform Policy?
Climate Change Futures: Health, Ecological and Economical Dimensions
Extreme Weather Events and Climate Change: Implications for Human Health
CO2, Climate Change and Public Health in the Urban Environment
Oceans, Climate and Human Health
The Potential Impacts of Change on U.S. Agriculture
Climate Change: Emerging Diseases Financial Impacts
Oil: A Life Cycle Analysis
"Bushmeat" and the Origin of HIV/AIDS
Senator Kerry (D-MA) Press Conference
Wildlife and Human Diseases
Sustaining Life
Climate Change Futures
Healthy Ocean, Healthy Humans
Healthy and Sustainable Food
Scientists and Evangelicals Initiative
Archives
Address:
Harvard Medical School
401 Park Drive, 2nd Floor East
Boston, MA 02215
Tel: 617.384.8530
Fax: 617.384.8585
General Email Address
Directions
|
|
Press
Conference with Senator John Kerry (D-MA)
- Go To:
- Speakers
- AP Article
- Article in HMS Web Weekly
On June 11, 2001, Senator Kerry accompanied by Center for Health and the
Global Environment Director Eric Chivian and Associate Director Paul Epstein
along with prominant climate scientists from Harvard University, MIT and
the Marine Biological Laboratory at Woods Hole, held a press conference
at the Center to address global climate change.
Speakers
 Eric Chivian, M.D. Director, Center for Health and the Global Environment,
Harvard Medical School; Assistant Clinical Professor of Psychiatry, Harvard
Medical School; shared Nobel Peace Prize, 1985
 James J. McCarthy, Ph.D. Alexander Aggasiz Professor
of Biological Oceanography, Harvard University; Director, Museum of Comparative
Zoology, Harvard university; Co-Chair, Working Group II, International
Panel of Climate Change
 Jerry
Melillo, Ph.D. Senior Scientist, The Ecosytems
Center, marine Biological Laboratory; former Associate Director for Environment
Office, Office of Science and Technology Policy, Office of the President
 Mario
Molina, Ph.D. Professor of Earth, Atmospheric,
and Planetary Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology; shared
Nobel Prize in Chemistry, 1995
 Paul
Epstein, M.D., M.P.H. Associate Director, Center
for Health and the Global Environment, Harvard Medical School; Instructor
in Medicine, Harvard Medical School
Statement by Eric Chivian M.D. Director, Center for Health and the Global
Environment Harvard Medical School June 11, 2001
These past few days, we may be seeing a taste of things to come, as tropical
storm Allison dumped more than 2 feet of rain in 24 hours on Southeastern
Texas and parts of Louisiana, killing at least 17 people and causing more
than $1 billion in damages in Houston alone.
Such extreme weather events‹torrential rains and flooding in some
areas and as well as prolonged droughts in others are predicted to increase
in frequency and severity as a result of global climate change, with their
attendant injuries and drownings.
There are other significant and potentially catastrophic impacts on health
as well:
- Increased illnesses and deaths from heat waves and air pollution,
particularly in urban areas, with the elderly, infants, the poor, and
those with chronic heart and lung disease the most at risk‹as we
saw during the Chicago heat wave in July of 1995 when more than 700 people
died,
- Decreased availability of drinking water from the effects of drought,
flooding, and rising seas,
- Increased outbreaks and spread of some vector-borne and water-borne
diseases,
- And perhaps of greatest concern, damaging effects to organisms
on land and in the oceans that could compromise food production and alter
the functioning of ecosystem services that provide the life support systems
for all living things on this planet.
I want to mention two things in conclusion. One is that we should not
be reassured by the fact that the impacts of global climate change cannot
be predicted with certainty‹the effects of greenhouse warming may
indeed be less severe than we anticipate, but they may also be more severe
than we can imagine. Finally, it is extremely important for people to
understand as we face the issue of global climate change, that with our
altering the composition of the atmosphere by our ever increasing burning
of fossil fuels, achieving carbon dioxide concentrations in the air that
our species, Homo sapiens, has not seen since we first evolved some 150,000
years ago, we are, in effect, conducting a global experiment that cannot
be repeated, with ourselves as the experimental subjects.
Statement by James J. McCarthy, Ph.D.
The recent report of the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) affirms the
basic findings of the 2001 reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC). The work of the IPCC has took over 3 years and involved
about a thousand scientists as authors and another thousand scientists
as reviewers. Its summary documents were unanimously accepted by one hundred
nations. The NAS review took one month and involved about a dozen scientists.
While the mandate of the IPCC was to review thousands of published scientific
papers and draw consensus as to what new findings have emerged in the
last five years, the request from the Administration that launched the
NAS review specifically asked that the greatest uncertainties as well
as certainties be identified.
It is also important to note that the NAS review focused primarily upon
the underlying science of climate change, whereas the IPCC also assessed
the likelihood of specific impacts of climate change upon many natural
and human and systems, such as the availability of fresh water, agriculture,
human health, etc. In addition, the key vulnerabilities to future climate
change were identified for major continental regions.
One aspect of climate change that was given very little attention in
the NAS review, but is a major aspect of human system vulnerability to
climate change, is climate variability. In the last five years the data
on recent climate change and projections for the future have become more
confident with respect to variability. We can now say with 90% confidence
that future climate change, in fact near future climate change, will be
characterized by more frequent, intense, and persistent precipitation
events, droughts, and wind storms. This is fundamental consequence of
the increased evaporation of ocean water brought about by the increased
heating of the lower atmosphere as greenhouse gas concentrations increase.
Record floods and droughts of the last five years have revealed the enormous
potential of such variability in climate to destroy lives, livelihoods,
and property. The list of these is growing rapidly- Honduras 1998, where
more than 10,000 lives were lost, Venezuela in 1999, where more than 25,000
lives were lost, and on other continents as well, with records floods
and droughts in Mozambique, Kenya, China, North Korea, and now South Korea.
While gradual climate change can bring some positive effects, such as
less winter mortality in some regions and enhanced crop growth in others.
But most systems and most sectors and most people will be adversely affected
by this climate change. For most people the projected rate of change will
simply exceed capacities to adapt to even gradual change, let alone a
future with more frequent, intense, and persistent extreme events.
In summary, the scientists who have spent the last few years assessing
the vulnerability of our species to future climate believe that there
is urgency to the matter of policy response to these findings. We have
begun to see the effects of human induced climate change, and the well
being of future generations depends upon our acting responsibly with this
new knowledge
Statement by
Jerry Melillo, Ph.D.
Natural ecosystems such as forests, grasslands, wetlands, lakes,
rivers, estuaries and oceans all serve as our life support systems
in many ways. These ecosystems supply us with a variety of benefits
that we rely upon every day. Benefits include production of a diversity
of goods, or extractive benefits, such as food, fiber, fuel and pharmaceutical
products.Ecosystems also provide us with services- non-extractive
benefits including purification of air and water, accumulation
of toxic elements, detoxification and decomposition of wastes, mitigation
of floods, moderation of storm surges along our coastlines, stabilization
of landscapes and regulation of climate.
Ecosystem services are generated by a complex of natural processes,
ranging from the short life cycles of microbes that break sown toxic
chemicals to the long-term and planet-wide cycles of water and elements
such as carbon and nitrogen that have sustained life for millions
of years.
Human-driven changes in land cover and land use, in the chemistry
of the atmosphere and precipitation, and in climate are working together
to alter the distribution, composition and functioning of the earthàs
natural ecosystems. One of the major conclusions of a recent federal
government report that assessed potential climate change impacts on
the United States (Climate Change Impacts on the United States: the
potential consequences of climate variability and change Cambridge
University Press) is that many natural ecosystems are vulnerable to
the harmful effects of climate change, as there is little that can
be done to help them adapt to the projected speed and amount of change
projected for the 21st century.
Some ecosystems that already have their distribution constrained
by climate, such as alpine meadows in the Rocky Mountains, are likely
to face extreme stress, and disappear in some places. It is likely
that more widespread ecosystems will also be vulnerable to climate
change. One of the climate scenarios used in the recent federal assessment
suggests the potential for the forests of the Southeast to break up
into a mosaic of forest, savannas, and grasslands. Climate scenarios
suggest likely changes in the species composition of Northeast forests,
including the loss of sugar maples.
Climate change is expected to lead to sea-level rise that is very
likely to cause further losses of coastal wetlands ecosystems
that provide vital nurseries and habitats for many fish species.
In summary, many US ecosystems face possibly disruptive climate change.
This is important because, in addition to their inherent
value, they also supply Americans with vital goods
and services, including food, wood, air and water purificatio and
protection of coastal lands.
Statement by Mario Molina, Ph.D.
I would like to make a few comments in connection with uncertainties
in the global warming issue. First of all, uncertainties cut
both ways the magnitude of the change and the severity
of the consequences could well be larger than anticipated at
present. Furthermore, the right question to ask from a policy
point of view is not how certain are we that undesirable changes
will take place, but rather, how certain are we that nothing
serious will happen. Uncertainties can now be quantified: some
recent calculations by colleagues of mine at MIT (Peter Stone,
Henry Jacoby, Ronald Prinn and others) using the MIT climate
model indicate that there is a 50% chance that the temperature
rise in the 21st century will be above 2.5 degrees Celsius
(that is, 4.5 degrees Fahrenheit), and a 1 in 3 chance that
the rise will be above 3 3.5 degrees Celsius (that is,
above about 6 degrees Fahrenheit), a change that is considered
to be very serious indeed with potentially very nasty consequences.
Let me place this numbers in perspective: let us assume your
physician tells you that you need to take a certain medicine
that does not taste good and that might make you drowsy for
several days. He also tells you, though, that there is a 50
% chance that you donàt really need the medicine you
might heal without it. On the other hand, he tells you that
if you donàt take the medicine you might get really
sick. What would you do? (I myself would take the medicine,
but admittedly, this is a matter of choice).
Let me now say a few words about the similarities between
the issue of global warming and that of ozone depletion. It
is now very well established that the thinning of stratospheric
ozone and the appearance of the Antarctic ozone hole are
a consequence of human activities. Furthermore, there is a
very successful international agreement in place the
Montreal Protocol that calls for a complete ban in the
manufacture of CFCs, the chemicals that cause the damage. There
are, of course, differences between the two issues, but nevertheless
there are some important lessons to be learned from the ozone
problem. For example, it is now clear that industry, the international
academic community and decision makers in government can work
together and can reach very productive agreements. Furthermore,
it is also clear from the ozone issue that strictly voluntary
measures are not likely to succeed. On the other hand, as soon
as it became clear that international regulations limiting
the production of CFCs were going to be implemented, industry
and society responded rapidly, developing new technologies
that permit us now-a-days to continue enjoying the benefits
of refrigeration, air conditioning, etc., without harming the
environment. I believe that something similar needs to happen
with the global warming issue strictly voluntary measures
will not do the job.
Statement by Paul Epstein,
M.D., M.P.H.
The increased rate of warming and greater variability
in weather -- with wide swings away from previous norms
-- are signs of an unstable climate. As the atmosphere
and deep ocean warm, ice is melting and atmospheric water
vapor is rising; and the altered Earthàs water
cycle are affecting patterns of disease.
In the 1990s we underestimated the potential for the
rate of change to advance and we underestimated the sensitivity
of biological systems to that warming and accompanying
increased intensity of extreme weather events. Unfortunately,
noxious organisms have a tendency to be first responders
after disturbances. While warming and the altered timing
of seasons have begun to affect the range and composition
of species, intense floods and storms are depositing "clusters" of
epidemics in their wake; as opportunistic carriers of
disease mosquitoes and rodents proliferate.
Several climate-related health surprises have recently
beset the U.S. The newest arrival -- West Nile virus
-- is carried by mosquitoes that thrive in organically
rich water stagnating in city drainage systems during
droughts. Droughts thus help to amplify the circulation
of virus among urban mosquitoes, birds and mammals, creating
conditions conducive to large outbreaks.
Increased carbon dioxide levels -- regardless of the
warming induced -- boost ragweed pollen, just as CO2
has been shown to stimulate cone and seed production
in North Carolinaàs loblolly pines. Such findings
may partially explain the dramatic increases in asthma
and allergies in the last ten years.
Warmer winters mean that more winter precipitation is
falling as rain rather than snow, increasing the potential
for ice storms, personal injuries and creating hazardous
conditions for air and ground transport. This area requires
further study.
Just as the costs of climate change mount, we face environmental
and energy crises, combined with growing economic uncertainty.
Significant incentives for energy efficiency, renewable
sources and smart growth can boost the economy, not bust
it. Clean development can become the engine of growth
for this century, helping to drive a healthier, more
equitable and sustainable future.
|
