Healthy Solutions for the Low Carbon Economy
Guidelines for Investors, Insurers and Policy Makers
 Climate Change and Human Health
Paul Epstein M.D., M.P.H., Harvard Medical School
Lecture Given on February 21, 2007
Lecturer Biography
Lecture Summary
Readings
Resources
Lecture Video (Streaming)
Powerpoint (PDF)
Biography
Paul R. Epstein, M.D., M.P.H. is Associate Director of the Center for Health and the Global Environment at Harvard Medical School (http://chge.med.harvard.edu) and is a medical doctor trained in tropical public health. Paul has worked in medical, teaching and research capacities in Africa, Asia and Latin America and in 1993, coordinated an eight-part series on Health and Climate Change for the British medical journal, Lancet. He has worked with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the National Academy of Sciences (NAS), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) to assess the health impacts of climate change and develop health applications of climate forecasting and remote sensing.
Dr. Epstein also served as a reviewer for the Health chapter of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment and coordinated Climate Change Futures: Health, Ecological and Economic Dimensions, an international project with Swiss Re and the United Nations Development Programme assessing the new risks and opportunities presented by a changing climate.
He is currently coordinating a Cat Modeling Forum with A.I.G., Lloyd’s of London and other insurers and insurance brokers, facilitating integration of dynamic and statistical models for better risk assessment and reduction. Dr. Epstein is also preparing a report that examines the “stabilization wedges” through the lens of health and ecological safety. Paul received recognition for his contributions to the work of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 2007.
Summary
Climate change has multiple direct and indirect consequences for human health. Heatwaves are the most direct and are projected to take an increasing toll in developed and underdeveloped nations. The 2003 summer heatwave in Europe, with 35,000 excess deaths in five nations, extensive wildfires and widespread crop failures demonstrates that climate change and the magnitude of its impacts may be surprisingly non-linear.
Climate also restricts the range of infectious diseases, while weather affects the timing and intensity of outbreaks. The ranges of several key diseases or their vectors are already changing in mountainous regions, along with upward shifts in plant communities, the rapid retreat of alpine glaciers and an upward shift in the freezing isotherm (the level at which temperatures remain below freezing all year).
Deep ocean warming is accelerating the hydrological cycle and the associated extreme weather events (EWEs) can create conditions conducive to outbreaks of infectious diseases. Heavy rains can leave insect breeding sites, drive rodents from burrows and contaminate clean water systems. Conversely, drought can spread fungal spores, spark fires (and respiratory illness) and is statistically associated with large outbreaks of West Nile virus and St Louis encephalitis, a disease with a similar life cycle.
Sequences of extremes can destabilize predator/prey relationships, leading to population explosions of opportunistic, disease-carrying organisms (e.g., rodents and mosquitoes). The 1997/98 El Niño-related extreme weather events spawned "clusters" of disease outbreaks in many regions of the globe.
In the marine environment, ocean warming – along with eutrophication and loss of filtering wetlands -- is contributing to harmful algal blooms that can cause shellfish poisoning, provide a reservoir for cholera and other bacteria, and can lead to hypoxia and "dead zones".
Excess carbon dioxide itself has consequences for organisms. Ragweed grown in elevated carbon dioxide levels produces a lot of pollen. Opportunistic, weedy plants take advantage by allocating CO2 to reproduction - the male parts - whereby they spread and prosper. Pioneering trees that spread quickly - like maples, pines, birches, and poplars - also appear to be boosting their seeds, cones, and pollen.
The impacts of EWEs also have economic consequences. Yearly losses increased from $4 billion annually in the 1980s to $40 billion in the 1990s; reached $55 billion in 2002 ($11 billion insured) and $60 billion ($15 billion insured) in 2003. The United Nations Environmental Programme estimates that annual losses from extreme weather events could reach $150 billion by the end of this decade if current trends continue; sending shockwaves through the insurance and reinsurance sectors.
Advances in climate forecasting and health early warning systems can help catalyze timely, environmentally-friendly public health interventions. If climate change continues to be associated with more volatile and severe weather, we have begun to see the profound consequences climate change can have for public health and the international economy.
Readings
Epstein PR ed. Climate Change Futures: Health, Ecological and Economic Dimensions (2nd ed). Boston, MA; Center for Health and the Global Environment. September 2006.
Epstein PR. Climate change and human health. New England Journal of Medicine. October 2005; 353:1433-1436.
Resources
Stern Review of the Economics of Climate Change: Executive Summary, HM Treasury, UK Government, 2006.
Stern Review of the Economics of Climate Change: Summary of Conclusions, HM Treasury, UK Government, 2006.
Stern Review of the Economics of Climate Change, HM Treasury, UK Government, 2006.
The Stern Review: A Dual Critique. World Economics. 2006; 7(4):165-232.
National Climatic Data Center
Environmental Health Perspectives
The New York Times (check out Tuesday Science sections)
The Boston Globe daily
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